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Alexandre7 min read
AI News November 1, 2026: Anthropic Files Its S-1, Gemini 4 Carbon and Mistral Large 4
Anthropic reveals $16.3 billion in revenue in its IPO S-1, Google launches Gemini 4 Carbon, Mistral opens Large 4 and the Nasdaq loses $2 trillion.
Alexandre7 min read
Credit: CNBC
Anthropic reported $16.286 billion in revenue for the first half of 2026, up from $1.163 billion a year earlier. The figure appears in the S-1 filed on October 26 with the SEC, the first step of its initial public offering on the Nasdaq under the ticker ANT. The price, the offering size and the valuation are still blank.
The same week, Google launched Gemini 4 Carbon (restricted access, 59 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index), Mistral opened the weights of Large 4 (about 1.05 trillion parameters) and GitHub announced that more than 40% of September pull requests started as an agent's first draft. On the markets, the Nasdaq 100 lost more than 5.8% in October, with $2 trillion of market capitalization wiped out.
Breakdown.
GitHub Octoverse 2026: agents open more than 40% of pull requests
In its Octoverse 2026 report, GitHub says more than 40% of September pull requests started with an agent's first draft, up from 17% in March. That is about 110 million agent-started pull requests, roughly six times the March level, for 34.3 billion commits over the year.
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Credit: GitHub
The report came out on October 28, at the opening of GitHub Universe. It counts 1.3 billion merged pull requests over the twelve months to September 30 (Blog du Modérateur, XenoSpectrum). These figures count detected agent activity, whatever the final fate of the pull request: it can be rewritten, closed or merged after human review.
On models, 61% of Copilot users who pick their model use several, and no model exceeds 25% of requests. GitHub also made Copilot Fusion available on October 28. Its Fusion Max variant scores 60 on the AA Coding Agent Index, 2 points behind Claude Code with Opus 5.5 Max (Stackademic).
Code agents are already covered in detail on the blog (architecture of AI code agents). Trust is growing more slowly than volume: according to the VB Intelligence study of October 28, the share of enterprises that let agents change production on their own fell from 75% to 56% (VentureBeat).
What remains is which models power these agents: on October 29, Mistral published its own with open weights.
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Credit: The Next Web
Mistral Large 4: a 1.05-trillion-parameter model with open weights
Mistral published Large 4 on October 29 with open weights on Hugging Face: about 1.05 trillion parameters in total, 52 billion active per token, a 1-million-token context and multimodal input. It reaches 41% on Terminal-Bench 4.0, against 28% in the October 6 preview.
The model uses an MoE architecture (mixture of experts: only a fraction of the parameters activates for each token). It was trained on 3,800 Nvidia Grace Blackwell GPUs in Europe, and a quantized version fits on 4 B200 or B300 GPUs (The Next Web, Mistral).
On Terminal-Bench 4.0, GLM-5.3 scores 40%, while Anthropic's Mythos 5.1 reaches 60.9%, according to Fortune. On the AA Coding Agent Index, Large 4 gets 48 while using 47% fewer tokens than GLM-5.3. In Surge's blind tests, it is preferred to GLM-5.3, Kimi K3 and DeepSeek V4.1 Flash, but wins only 22% of comparisons against Opus 5.5 (Usine Digitale).
Pierre Stock, VP Science at Mistral, sums up the line: "AI is going to be like electricity".
On the proprietary side, Google launched Gemini 4 Carbon, reserved for now for partner cybersecurity organizations.
Gemini 4: Argon is public, Carbon is reserved for cyber defenders
Google now has two Gemini 4 models. Argon has been public since October 13 at $2 per million input tokens and $10 for output, then $4 and $20 from December 1. Carbon, announced on October 28, stays in restricted access, with no general availability date.
Argon offers a 1-million-token context, a 95% discount on cached input tokens ($0.10) and a cruising rate identical to Claude Opus 5.5. It is available to Pro (about $19.99 per month) and Ultra (about $249.99) subscribers in the AI search mode and the Gemini app (Layer3 Labs, Google Cloud). Its benchmark record is mixed: first on one coding test, tied in cyber, behind on two others (Shattered).
Carbon scores 59 on Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index v5, first place out of 52 models and about 9 points above Argon. It stays behind Opus 5.5 on the AA Coding Agent Index (59 against 62), with a hallucination rate of 11% against 4% for Argon. On the Vals Index, it scores 70.4% against 70.2% for Opus (VentureBeat, NeuralTrust). The cyber scores published by Google (SEC-bench Pro 88.2%, ExploitGym 54.8%) have not been independently reproduced.
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Credit: NeuralTrust
Access goes first to selected cyber defenders, then to partners in the Fairwind program. On the markets, Alphabet reported its results on October 29.
Anthropic files its S-1: $16.3 billion in revenue in six months
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Credit: CNBC
Anthropic filed a confidential S-1 on October 26 that was made public: $16.286 billion in revenue in the first half of 2026 ($1.163 billion a year earlier), an operating income of $974 million in the second quarter, its first profitable quarter, and more than 11,900 customers above $100,000.
The offering targets the Nasdaq under the ticker ANT, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as lead banks and a syndicate of 22 banks (CNBC, Reuters). The price, the offering size and the valuation are not filled in. The last known valuation is $965 billion (May), and press estimates mention $1 trillion or more.
The prospectus figures
Quarterly revenue went from $4.7 billion in the first quarter to $11.6 billion in the second, more than all of 2025 (about $4.6 billion). In 2023 it was $41 million, in 2024 $386 million. Usage-based consumption accounts for $13.1 billion (80%), subscriptions for $3.2 billion (20%) (CNBC).
The $2.38 billion cost of revenue implies a gross margin of about 85%, against 12% a year earlier. The adjusted operating margin reaches 19% (Morningstar). The net loss of $80.748 billion includes $72.388 billion of non-cash fair value changes tied to convertible notes and SAFEs (instruments for raising funds that convert into shares).
The document lists more than half of the Fortune 500 among its customers, and a net revenue retention of 900%. The founders keep 50.1% of voting rights (VC Corner).
The risk factors
Growth is slowing: about +144% quarter over quarter in the second quarter, then about +47% in the third according to CNBC. Anthropic warns that it may not reach or sustain profitability. Compute remains the largest cost, with a monthly bill of about $3.1 billion at full delivery, and a stated dependence on Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Broadcom. The company has raised about $140 billion to date.
According to Bloomberg Law, the investor roadshow could start as early as the week of November 9. Anthropic had already planned to set aside 5% of its capital for a public benefit fund, as the October 24 AI news recalls.
The timing of the offering falls in a month of decline for AI stocks.
The Nasdaq loses $2 trillion in October over AI spending
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Credit: Reuters
The Nasdaq 100 is set to end October down more than 5.8%, with more than $2 trillion of market capitalization wiped out, a little more than the total value of SpaceX. Alphabet fell 12.6% on October 29, its worst session ever, after capital expenditure rose 114%.
According to Reuters (October 30), the decline feeds fears about the return on AI spending (Reuters). The Nasdaq Composite lost 2.9% on October 30, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.91%.
Alphabet reported $127.58 billion in third-quarter revenue (+25%) and EPS of $2.12, against about $3.00 expected. Capital expenditure reaches $51.4 billion, free cash flow is negative at $9.1 billion, the cloud grows 103% to $30.7 billion with a backlog of about $561 billion. The stock closed at $283.82, about $475 to $500 billion of market capitalization wiped out. The 2026 capex guidance is $195 to $205 billion.
At Amazon, AWS posted $45.98 billion, with a capex plan of about $220 billion and free cash flow of minus $42.4 billion (TechCrunch). Intel fell about 20% after the close on a weak forecast, and Microsoft shows $18.6 billion of free cash flow, stable. J.P. Morgan estimates industry-wide AI spending at about $900 billion in 2026.
Anthropic plans to go public in this context.
Other news in brief
Google expands AI mode ads to 10 countries on October 28 (Australia, Canada, India, Kenya, Malaysia, New Zealand, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, Singapore), with the United Kingdom, Brazil and Mexico planned for the fourth quarter. Google acknowledges that AI mode earns less per query, and the Gemini app counts 1 billion users (TechCrunch).
OpenAI-backed Thrive Holdings acquires ADT for $10 per share, $7.6 billion in equity value and $15.3 billion in enterprise value. Closing is expected in the first quarter of 2027 (TechCrunch).
79% of surveyed companies say their GPUs run half the time or less, according to a VentureBeat survey of 218 respondents, most of whom still plan new AI platforms (VentureBeat).
OWASP publishes its MCP Top 10, a list of security risks for the Model Context Protocol, the standard connecting agents and tools (OWASP).
Conclusion: revenue up, markets down
In September, more than 40% of GitHub pull requests started with an agent, according to the Octoverse report. Mistral published a 1.05-trillion-parameter model with open weights, and Google split Gemini 4 between Argon, public, and Carbon, restricted. On December 1, Argon will charge $4 for input and $20 for output per million tokens, the same level as Claude Opus 5.5 (the tools of Claude Code rely on this model family).
The S-1 filed on October 26 by Anthropic reports $16.286 billion in revenue for the first half of 2026, against $1.163 billion a year earlier. Over October, the Nasdaq 100 fell more than 5.8%, with more than $2 trillion of market capitalization wiped out according to Reuters. According to Bloomberg Law, the marketing of Anthropic's offering could start as early as the week of November 9.
Alex
- Anthropic reported $16.286 billion in revenue for the first half of 2026 in its S-1, with a first profitable quarter ($974 million operating income in Q2)
- Gemini 4 Carbon scores 59 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index but stays in restricted access, while Argon moves to $4 and $20 per million tokens on December 1
- Mistral Large 4 ships with open weights, 1.05 trillion parameters of which 52 billion active, and reaches 41% on Terminal-Bench 4.0
- More than 40% of September pull requests on GitHub started with an agent, up from 17% in March
- The Nasdaq 100 loses more than 5.8% in October ($2 trillion) and Alphabet falls 12.6% in one session after capex up 114%
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